Take a look at the latest visible image of Hurricane Bertha. A well developed eye is visible on the pic below. Its amazing what we can tell about storms today from space, more than 22,000 miles up!

(Image courtesy: Weather Underground)

Looking at some of the latest microwave data from space shows Bertha a good batch of very heavy storms and rain to the north of the center. A nearly closed eyewall is also visible on the picture below. We use these microwave images to basically give us an X-Ray of the storm, much like you see at the hospital. We can derive from the data the current winds and direction, where the heaviest rain is and see the eyewall in action, a great indicator of the storms strength and overall health.

(Image courtesy: Univ. of Wisconsin / CIMSS)

The latest tasking from the National Hurricane Center has the Hurricane Hunters on the way to visit Bertha on Tuesday:

NOUS42 KNHC 061715 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 06 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-036

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK. (AMENDED)
       A. POSSIBLE AIR FORCE FLIGHT ON TS BERTHA,
          8/18Z, 20N 57W.
    3.  BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES 9/12Z IF NECESSARY.

 Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Our first hurricane of the 2008 season is here and it’s Bertha. Our tropical storm finally had winds top out at 75mph this morning so the National Hurricane Center pushed Bertha to Hurricane status. The big questions now again surround how strong does she get and where does she go. We have watched the forecast guidance closely over the weekend and I like what I have seen recently…a turn to the right in the long range forecast path. Whats good news for the east coast of the U.S. might be bad news for Bermuda as the storm could pass very near that island.

(Image courtesy: Weather Underground) Infrared Satellite Picture

Infrared and microwave imagery from overnight satellite scans have shown on and off signs that Bertha has a fairly well developed eye feature, roughly 15 miles wide. So far, Bertha has strengethed overall as expected. The storm has been moving over an area of increasing oceanic heat content and will continue to move toward warmer waters in the days ahead. Shear over the storm has stayed at roughly 10-15 knots, which has not really affected the storm as it has tried to become better organized. Intensity guidance maintains Bertha as a hurricane over the next 5 days.

(Image courtesy: Weather Underground) Tropical Forecast Model Plots

So…where does she go. All bets right now are on a northward turn somewhere in the 4-5 day range over the west-central Atlantic. The big issue is when that turn starts to happen. It all is based on a weakness in the Bermuda High forecast by some of the global forecast models. The stronger the storm is, the more impact the weakness might have on Bertha, turning it north sooner. If the weakness is not as strong as forecast, Bertha may continue on a more northwesterly course, not turning until it is west of Bermuda. Then comes the out lier…some of our guidance says that Bertha may not turn at all. So as you can see, there is very little confidence in the long term track. Is it a threat to the U.S.? Right now, I say not likely, but its all dependent on that northward turn. If Bertha was to affect the coast, it would come in 6-8 days.

It is interesting to note that on this day, July 7th 1993…another Hurricane Bertha formed in the Atlantic Ocean. That Bertha did make it all the way to the U.S. coast and brushed the South Carolina coast before making landfall in North Carolina near the Outer Banks.

We will continue to watch Bertha and have the latest here on the Blog and over in the Hurricane Center.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well, I can think of so may songs that could describe the heat wave that has suffocated the eastern half of the U.S…but I will spare you my horrible singing!

We are on the southern end of those high temps. It has been much worse for folks up in the big cities of the Northeast where the heat island effects have made it feel up to 10°-15° hotter on top of the heat index! We hopefully will see a few more showers and storms over the next few days as the big “heat ridge” over the region starts to move east and break down a bit. It was promising to see the isolated storms pop over the Midlands late yesterday afternoon. I expect that trend again today but don’t look for much around our backyards…nothing more than an isolated storm here or there.

(Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The tropics are nice and quiet this morning. We do note a few flareups across the Atlantic Basin. One is just south of Cuba, west of Jamaica. There are no signs of development and the upper level winds over the region are not favorable for development over the next few days. Another wave has popped up just off the coast of Columbia near Panama. That wave is moving west and is not forecast to develop. It’s early in the season and as the map below shows, we are still a good ways from the peak of the season. June and July are usually slow months for developemnt

(Image Courtesy: N.O.A.A.)

As we approach the peak of the season, the storm count really goes up. The waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western nearshore Atlantic are typically early season breeding grounds for tropical trouble so we will watch them closely.

Stay cool and see you back here soon!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Just take a look at those numbers above and you get the idea…It’s gonna be HOT! The humidity combined with the rising temps will bring the Heat Advisories back out today, early for this time of the year. The heat index values could rise as high as 102° to 108°. As you can see on the map above, it will be very possible for highs near the Savannah River to reach the triple digits, combined with the heat index, making for a dangerous mix. Make sure that if you are outside today, you take plenty of precautions to stay cool and hydrated. Want to know just how hot it feels outside? Take a look at the chart below and you will know:

(Image Courtesy: National Weather Service)

Just remember…heat related health issues can kill. If you have been outside and don’t feel well, call 911 at once. You could be dehydrated, have heat exhaustion or be suffering from heat stroke. All require emergency treatment so take care of yourself today!

Looking elsewhere…the tropics are still quiet. There are no indications on our forecast models that development across the basin is on the way. There are a few waves here and there but conditions are not prime for storms to pop up over the next week or so. Things can always change and we will keep an eye on it for you!

Stay Cool Today!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Image Courtesy: Weather Underground (wunderground.com)

Looking out across the Atlantic this Tuesday morning, all is quiet in the tropics…something that we welcome for sure. The latest satellite pics from the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic show a few tropical waves but none are organized. All our tropical forecast models are indicating quiet conditions for the next few days. We typically watch the waters near “our backyards” this time as of the year as climatology suggests that the Gulf and Caribbean are usually the most active for early season development. The remnants of T.S. Arthur have moved back into the Pacific Ocean and are not expected to redevelop.

Remember you can always get the latest tropical update here on the website or by calling our Live 5 Hurricane Hotline at 843-402-5800 24 hours/7 days a week. Also be sure and book mark our tropical weather page, click on the Hurricane Center: 2008 in the menu links at the top of this page!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

It was nice to have some overnight showers and storms outside to help us sleep, but as we head out this morning we don’t need the wet weather on the roads.

Live SuperDoppler 5000 has shown a good bit of rain and storms scattered about mainly south and west of I-26. As we head through the day today it will be a good idea to keep the umbrella in the backseat as a summer like day will mean more isolated storms. Some could be strong with heavy rain and small hail. All storms today will be prolific lightning producers so keep that in mind if you have to be outside.

The rest of the week does look a bit drier and warm with humidity building. Ahh…the days of summer are almost here! Get ready for the heat indexes to start inching upward!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Looks like the summer heat and increased humidity this afternoon is going to set the stage for some isolated strong to severe storms across the Lowcountry. There have already been several warnings for the midlands over the past hour and the latest radar trends show storms developing west of I-95 that are moving east. Click “Live SuperDoppler 5000″ above for the latest radar picture.

It looks like the action has also caught the eye of the Storm Prediction Center. Below is a “MCD” or mesoscale convective discussion that are issued to advise us that there may be severe weather watch is coming down the pipe. We wil keep a close eye on it. Make sure you are ready if strong storms pop up near where you are. We will have the latest severe weather watches and warnings here on the website and on the air with our Live 5 StormALERT.

Stay Tuned…

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011739Z - 011845Z

   OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL COMPONENT HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
   INTO THE LOWER 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN
   SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SERN SC AND SRN NC.  INHIBITION IS ALL BUT
   REMOVED ACROSS THIS REGION WITH CU FIELD NOW EXPANDING...AND
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING ALONG SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW FROM
   SRN SUMPTER COUNTY TO ORANGEBURG COUNTY IN SC.  LATEST SATELLITE
   IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT REMNANT MVC N OF CAE...DRIFTING ESEWD.
   THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE BACKGROUND SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ALONG/AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM SERN SC...INTO
   SRN PORTIONS OF NC.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT
   LOOSE STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
   REGION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

June 1st….The 2008 hurricane season is underway! Hope you are ready for what the next six months may hold. Just like last year, we have actually started the season a day early as Tropical Storm Arthur developed on Saturday over the Yucatan Peninsula. The good news is that T.S. Arthur is not that big of an issue other than the heavy rain over the Yucatan. It is expected to dissipate over the next few days over the high terrain of southern Mexico. Arthur developed from the remnant circulation/tropical moisture of Tropical Storm Alma that was in the eastern Pacific.

The questions are already coming everywhere we go…”whats the season looking like this year” or “are we going to get hit this year”. Of course we give the standard answer…”We just don’t know yet. We will have to wait and see.” There is some degree of reliability in overall season to season activity but there is no way to tell where or when an individual storm will form more than a few days out. So for all of you wanting a more accurate tropical forecast…just hold on. We are getting better year after year.

We hope that you will take the time to check out our new interactive Hurricane Tracker on our tropical page here on the website. Just click on “Hurricane Center: 2008″ at the top of the page for more. As you know, we are on a totally new website platform so we will be adding more and more content to the Hurricane Center as the next few weeks pass but all the important information you need to be ready is on there now so check it out. I have also added some more “techie” weather links to the blogroll on the left of this post. You can check them out if you want even more detailed information.

Just remember to check the blog often. This will become our primary discussion forum for what the day to day tropical forecast holds. We will have a lot more here than what we have time for on the air so you will want to add this to your daily reading for the web for sure.

Thanks for stopping by and remember to pick up your free 2008 Hurricane Survival Guide at any local Piggly Wiggly, SCE&G or at the Live 5 Studios!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well here were go…the 2008 Hurricane Season is here and the big question is are you ready? We ask the same questions each and every year, but the majority of the answers we here are no…most folks are not ready for what the next six months may bring. Live 5 News is helping you get prepared! The 2008 Hurricane Survival Guide is ready to make it to your home! Make sure you stop by your local Piggly Wiggly, SCE&G or the Live 5 Studios for your free copy. Inside you will find the most up to date information on what to do when a storm approaches. New maps show evacuation routes and new safety information for all our coastal counties.

You are not prepared for hurricane season without it…

After severe storms raked the plains and western states on Friday and Saturday, we were hoping that Sunday would have been break from the storms but it was not. The map below shows the storm reports from Sunday.

A total of 507 severe weather events is substantial…and I have the feeling that this four day Memorial Day weekend will be one of the most damaging on the books. Lets just be thankful that all the nasty weather stayed away from us!

We will take a look at the 2008 NOAA Hurricane Forecast later today…the numbers point toward a near to above average season. I will have them posted later this morning.

Enjoy your Memorial Day here across the Lowcountry!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist