Okay….busy in the Storm Center today.

 Bottom line on FAY….we need to watch it.  Current track and NHC thinking is up the west coast of Florida. 

This all comes down to timing.  The trough moving off the east coast will help turn the storm north, then a ridge builds as it exits, perhaps forcing the storm more west at the end of the period.

The models are hinting a tad more left of track this evening, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out.  A couple bring it along the east coast of Florida and another towards New Orleans!  So, we just need to look at all the runs and see where the consensus is. 

If the storm would be more right of track in time, that could be a problem for us seeing that it would be over water and would intensify, perhaps into a category III or IV.  If it takes the current forecast track, the land mass interaction will keep it at bay, perhaps a tropical storm for its life.  The mountians of the Dominican Republic and Cuba will be key to keeping this from becoming a major hurricane.

Again, lots of uncertainties.  We have to watch this storm carefully and will do so here all weekend and into next week.

Hope you have a great weekend.  We’ll keep you posted on the storm.

Bill

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