Good Saturday Morning…will do a quick update here and have more after the 12Z models are all in house.

All eyes are still on Fay this morning and she is holding her own over the high mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The satellite view shows a large convective mass south of the somewhat uncertain COC (center of circulation).

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NASA/MSFC)

As we typically see on systems as they pass over the islands, the internal structure is a bit disrupted with the heaviest storms displaced to the north or south over the warmer and smoother waters. The hurricane hunters have reported a hard time finding the exact center of the storm as they flew around the entire island. I would not be suprised to see the center migrate or try and reform just off the south coast of Haiti as it moves westward. The overall storm structure looks very well defined this morning with upper level outflow established on all sides. There is evidence of on and off spiraling bands on radar. The big questions remain…how does Fay interact with her continued passage over land then sea then land again, how much can she strengthen while over the water and how does the overall synoptic setup in the future impact her path?

Those are all questions lots of forecasters are working to answer. I will say this…it looks better for us that we will not be in a position for a “direct hit” as it appeared yesterday as all the dynamical tropical models have moved the path to the west, along with the NHC official forecast track. But as we alyways say, you cant focus on the “black line”. The entire “forecast cone” is what to look for and yes, we still fall in that cone. Here is the latest look at the model data as of 9:00am EDT:

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

As you can see the guidance package is tightly clustered on a track along the southwest coast of Cuba in to the Florida Straits and then paralleling the west coast of Florida with a landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida, near St. Marks. With that being said, look at the spread though…from south of Mobile Bay east to Wilmington, N.C. so you see why we cant hang out hat on any point just yet. The further west Fay moves over the Caribbean before her northward turn, the more the track will move to the west. If she turns north sooner, the track will bend bak a bit more to the east. The intensity forecast is just as tricky. If Fay can remain somewhat consolidated as it exits the coast of Haiti, it will have a good environment for fairly quick strengthening. There is just a question on how quickly she can take advantage of the warm waters before moving over the southeast coast of Cuba. The NHC forecast makes her a hurricane once she brushes back over the Gulf of Ana Maria (water just off the south central coast of Cuba). She is forecast to maintain hurricane strength across western Cuba and strengthen as she moves up the Florida coast. If Fay can tap the heat potential in the water and quickly get her act together, there is a reasonable possibility that she could reach Category 2 status as she approaches the Sunshine State. (Let us note though that a more westward track over the waters south of Cuba would allow explosive development as the oceanic heat content there is very impressive and could lead to rapid intensification).

It’s all still really a wait and see game. I don’t want folks here in the Lowcountry to dismiss the storm totally just yet. With a landfall to our south and west on the Gulf Coast, we still have a good chance of getting some heavy rain and strong storms as the center moves inland. So…stay with us here on the Blog..and on Live 5 News.com and we will have the latest updates through the weekend.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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