Tropical Storm Fay did survive the passage over the Dominican Republic and since it’s time over water the past 12+ hours, it has shown some signs of regeneration but the process is looking slow. Fay may not have time to become a Hurricane before moving over Cuba later this evening and tonight.
(Visible Satellite - GOES FLOATER - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The center of Fay was located near the Gulf of Ana Maria as of the 11am advisory package and was moving slowly northwest toward the southern coast of Cuba. The circulation is showing signs on the visible pics of trying to become better organized but is now fighting some dry air off to the west of the storm. The disrupted core appears to have ingested some of that drier air and that has let to the heaviest rain displaced to the right of the COC (center of circulation). Fay still has the chance to intensify quickly to near hurricane strength before making landfall on Cuba as it is over very warm waters.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast model plots are all still split to the left and right this morning, however the more reliable models are shifted again slightly to the east of the previous runs and the target for initial landfall in the U.S. is the southernmost Florida Keys, near Key West and then on up the west coast of the peninsula between Ft. Myers and the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The intensity plots along with the official forecast from the NHC does make Fay a hurricane before landfall on the western Florida Gulf Coast, most likely as a Category 1 storm, but there is the chance of a much stronger hurricane as the Gulf waters are very warm. Fay has to re-develop a solid inner core in order to continue strengthening. There is some evidence of this in the latest data but until Fay moves away from Cuba, the hurricane hunters can’t get a good read on the internal structure.

The question for the lowcountry down the road is what does Fay bring us? There are some hints that we may have to deal with a possible third landfall on the South Carolina coast as fay re-emerges over the extreme western Atlantic, near Jacksonville and moves northeast toward the South/North Carolina coastline. Depending on the amount of weakening while over Florida, we could still see tropical storm or hurricane conditions later next week. The plots from the NHC keep the storm to our west inland over the Savannah river as a tropical storm, which would give us a a fairly significant severe weather threat Tuesday - Thursday. This is all based on model forecast trends. Until Fay moves inland and time progresses over the next few days we will not have a solid hold on the potential threats here.

(Official NHC Forecast - Image Courtesy: National Hurricane Center)

The NHC has Fay just west of Beaufort on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm. This bears close watching as a bend slightly to the east would mean that tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings would be necessary in the days ahead for the region. Hurricane Watches are already posted for the Florida Keys northward up the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of Florida.

Thats the latest in a quiclk glance here on Sunday morning. If things change I will post again later this evening. Otherwise Join Brad Miller and Chief Meteorologist Bill Walsh on the evening broadcasts tonight. I will have the latest for you on Monday morning starting at 5AM.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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