Wow…what a crazy couple of days with computer models flip flopping back and forth and Fay not wanting any of it!

 New guidance shows a weakening tropical storm moving north towards Jacksonville FLA then taking a sharp turn left towards Brunswick and on to Atlanta! 

Looks like all the models build the ridge to the north and east of Fay rather strongly and this makes sense given the current and short term synoptic changes w/ the trough that will be pulling out as another moves east.

This storm is trying to get better organized, but does not have much time and the conditions are only marginal for strengthening with some dry air entraining on the west side and some shear. 

Bottom line is that we’re looking at on and off rain showers into Wed/Thu & Fri with some heavy rains possible and gusty winds.  We could see some isolated tornadoes as we remain to the north and east of the center.

 We’ll keep you posted for sure.  Busy here in the Storm Center.  All of us are watching every model run and seeing what the computers are thinking then looking at the actual model consistency.

We’ll have new information at 11 and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcast.

Bill

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