Well, It’s a tough call with Fay because of the trough to the north lifting out, the timing of a ridge building back and where that storm will turn west after the high builds in.  Here’s a quick rundown I posted on our regular site:

Watching Tropical Storm Fay over South Florida this evening and tonight while looking at the future impacts of the storm here in the Lowcountry.  Fay should move off the coast of Florida during the early morning hours of Wednesday.  This will put the storm back over the ocean and we could see some slow strengthening during that period.  Current thinking takes Fay back to the coast near Brunswick or Jacksonville on Thursday.  If this track verifies, we would be seeing a fair amount of rainfall as she heads inland to our south.  Any further north for landfall would change the amount of rain and type of impact here.  Right now look for a wet Wed, Thu and Fri with gusty winds and isolated tornadoes within those bands.  Stay informed and continue to monitor the progression of Fay.

Now the radar shows Fay moving north/northeast and the hurricane center is being rather conservative on the estimates of restrengthening.  We’ll just have to see how long the storm will stay over the water and the amount of shear and a slight dry air entrainment along the southern semicircle. 

Bottom line is that we could see a lot of rain from the storm if it heads towards Brunswick or Jacksonville for a second landfall.  The more up the coast and later that turn takes, the more impact for us.  That would mean more rain and higher winds with the potential of some storm surge if the center passes less than 100 miles to our south.

So, we’ll have new info during the 5 p.m. broadcasts and another new package from the hurricane center at 11. 

All of our meteorologists have been here watching this thing.  I came in at 11 a.m. to see the latest and we all talked about how well the structure of the storm is doing over “land.”  Land is relative in South Florida because of the amount of swamp and wetlands which will slow any rapid weakening which would be more common over hard landmass.  We are fascinated with this forecast and will continue to refine it.

During this time we get many calls and questions which we try to answer.  The biggest is where it’s going and that’s still tough at this hour.

Had a busy day getting the storm tracker ready to deploy if needed.   Also watching “Invest 94L” which is half way across the Atlantic and not doing much at the moment, we’ll just have to see if it can get some moisture involved with it’s broad circulation.

Took my father for lunch and enjoyed a fair amount of sunshine.  Lunch was good and we’re getting ready for the kids to start back to school.  Yes, lookout Lowcountry as I hit the commute again in the morning on the way to school!  Weird sleeping habits when the kids are in school.  Janet does the radio show and goes to work at 4:30 a.m.  I get the kids up at six and bring them to school for 8.  But I go to bed around 1:30 a.m. depending on when I get home from the late broadcasts.  So, I’ll sleep again at 8:15 a.m. or so for a few hours.  Are you following along so far?  Crazy schedule but it seems to work out. 

We’ll keep you posted on all of this and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcasts.  Have a great night!

Bill

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