Good Wednesday Morning. We are feeling the humidity here across the lowcountry thanks to the remaining tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Fay over eastern Tennessee. The heaviest rainfall has been well north of the Charleston area the past day or so which has allowed us to dry out a bit. Nice to see the sunshine again but I did not miss the muggy and hotter afternoons that are on the way back in. You can always get the latest forecast on our main weather page by clicking the weather link in the menu at the top of this webpage.

All our attention over the next few days will be on Gustav. A Hurricane yesterday that weakened overnight to a tropical storm thanks to the high mountains of southwesten Haiti. The latest information that continues to stream into the storm center shows a growing, in fact ominous threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast as we come out of the upcoming weekend. Here is the latest…

(Infrared Satellite - T.S. Gustav - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The latest RECON reports from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters show that the center of Gustav has finally moved back over water this morning. As the center slowly begins to trek west-northwestward, slow strengthening and rebuilding should begin to take place. The very high mountians of southern Haiti and southeast Cuba are very effective at tearing the lower to mid levels of tropical systems apart. There are indicaitons that the internal core of Gustav has been disrupted by its pass over land, but the latest VORTEX report does still show an elongated eye that is open to the southwest.

As the center rebuilds, the upper levels should remain favorable for steady strengthening. There is a low 10-15 knots of wind shear aloft that is forecast to subside over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves westward, in fact an upper level anticyclone (high pressure aloft) is forecast to build in as the storm approaches the waters south of Cuba into the Yucatan Channel. This, combined with some of the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic Basin could be a setup for an extended period of rapid intensificaiton. We will have to see how long it takes Gustav to regain its composure. The shorter the time, the quicker it will grow. We hope that it remains a weaker system but even an interaction with Cuba should not have a lasting effect on the system once it is back over the warmer waters of the Windward Passage.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast models with Gustav are in a whole different ballgame than what we had with Fay. Gustav is being well represented in the majority of the runs and they are all now beginning to really agree that a Gulf of Mexico hurricane is ahead. The view from the cheap seats this morning would show a major, potentially catastrophic hurricane in the nothern GOM late this weekend into the first days of next week.

GFDL Model - Click To Enlarge

HWRF Model - Click To Enlarge

The GFDL and HWRF show a very tight track from southeast Louisiana to Biloxi, Mississippi with landfall Monday as a Category 3/4. The UKMET is still the furthest left, with a bias towards the upper Texas coast while the NOGAPS and a few others inclding the GFS are further east toward Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. So…the bottom line here is if you have friends and family on the Northern Gulf coast from roughly Apalachacola, Fl west to Galveston, TX they need to be making plans now for a possible strike from a major hurricane. If you have travel plans to the region next week, please stay very intouch with the forecast, because if this trend does verify, I would expect evacuation orders issued over the weekend for parts of the north-central coast from Louisiana to Alabama.

Lets do hope that Gustav weakens or changes paths and takes our friends there out of harms way…however with the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Friday, all eyes will be watching another storm that may tear apart what most folks have just gotten put back together.

We are also watching a few more waves that show some signs of development over the central and eastern Atlantic. Several of the forecast models do develop them and move them in the general directon of Bermuda or so. May have to watch them here along the coast but for now…no problems.

We, of course, will be watching and waiting with the latest on Gustav here on the blog and on the air. We hope you join us for the broadcasts throughout the day.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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