Well there are two things for sure that will be in the news over the next couple of weeks…Politics and the Tropics and neither look to go away for a good while. We will leave the politics to the news department and hit the ground running with the latest on Gustav and our newest tropical child, Tropical Depression #8.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV:

(NHC Forecast - Gustav | Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

Gustav has been making a trek further to the south over the past 12-18 hours and has recently shown a burst of fairly intensive strengthening, going from 50 mph to 70 mph winds in just a few hours. The latest RECON flight is still in the storm and will most likely find data to bring Gustav back to hurricane status by the 11am advisory. The center is not that far off the eastern tip of Jamaica and is going to give that island nation a battering today. The overall thinking on Gustav in the short term has not changed. The storm should move south of Jamaica today and be south of Cuba tomorrow afternoon over very warm water. The intensity and forecast path beyond three days is still what is in question. The official forecast from the NHC lies on the western side of the guidance envelope but the models are still a bit more divergent this morning. Some say west of Louisiana, some say near New Orleans and some are as far east as the Pensacola area. The threat is real now that we are fairly confident of a landfall on the northern Gulf coast but the strength is still the biggest unknown. The NHC keeps the official forecast as a Cat. 3 at landfall but depending on ocean temps, wind shear and other factors, it could be weaker or stronger. To early to tell just yet.

(Model Plots- Gustav - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

(A.M. Visible Image - Gustav - Image Courtesy: NOAA)

We will continue to watch the latest info on Gustav today to see if the strengthening trends continue and will have more here on the blog and on the air.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT:

(NHC Official Forecast - TD8 - Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

Just in time for the early morning wake up call comes Tropical Depression #8 over the tropical Mid-Atlantic. As of 5am, TD8 was looking very well developed on the satellite views and will most likely upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna at the 11am advisory cycle. TD8 has a very well developed low level center of circulation and a developing CDO (Central Dense Overacast) which signals the slow strengthening has begun. All the reliable models keep the system as a tropical storm through Saturday night then bring it to hurriane status as it approaches the eastern Bahamas at the first of next week. We will have to keep an eye on what will become Hanna due to the models forecasting a sharp left turn at the end of the 5 day period in response to high pressure building over the New England states. If this happens, Hanna may track westward in the direction of the upper Bahamas, Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastlines. Its more than to early to make a guess here but we will watch it daily to see what happens of course. Still would be a good idea this weekend to check your supplies and make sure you have everything you may need.

(Tropical Forecast Models - TD8 - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

(A.M.Visible Satellite - TD8 - Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The tropics could become even more active with several more waves closer to Africa showing signs of possible development so stay tuned!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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