Our first hurricane of the 2008 season is here and it’s Bertha. Our tropical storm finally had winds top out at 75mph this morning so the National Hurricane Center pushed Bertha to Hurricane status. The big questions now again surround how strong does she get and where does she go. We have watched the forecast guidance closely over the weekend and I like what I have seen recently…a turn to the right in the long range forecast path. Whats good news for the east coast of the U.S. might be bad news for Bermuda as the storm could pass very near that island.

(Image courtesy: Weather Underground) Infrared Satellite Picture

Infrared and microwave imagery from overnight satellite scans have shown on and off signs that Bertha has a fairly well developed eye feature, roughly 15 miles wide. So far, Bertha has strengethed overall as expected. The storm has been moving over an area of increasing oceanic heat content and will continue to move toward warmer waters in the days ahead. Shear over the storm has stayed at roughly 10-15 knots, which has not really affected the storm as it has tried to become better organized. Intensity guidance maintains Bertha as a hurricane over the next 5 days.

(Image courtesy: Weather Underground) Tropical Forecast Model Plots

So…where does she go. All bets right now are on a northward turn somewhere in the 4-5 day range over the west-central Atlantic. The big issue is when that turn starts to happen. It all is based on a weakness in the Bermuda High forecast by some of the global forecast models. The stronger the storm is, the more impact the weakness might have on Bertha, turning it north sooner. If the weakness is not as strong as forecast, Bertha may continue on a more northwesterly course, not turning until it is west of Bermuda. Then comes the out lier…some of our guidance says that Bertha may not turn at all. So as you can see, there is very little confidence in the long term track. Is it a threat to the U.S.? Right now, I say not likely, but its all dependent on that northward turn. If Bertha was to affect the coast, it would come in 6-8 days.

It is interesting to note that on this day, July 7th 1993…another Hurricane Bertha formed in the Atlantic Ocean. That Bertha did make it all the way to the U.S. coast and brushed the South Carolina coast before making landfall in North Carolina near the Outer Banks.

We will continue to watch Bertha and have the latest here on the Blog and over in the Hurricane Center.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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