Back to work this morning and back to the forecast, which in the days ahead, looks wet for us here in the Lowcountry with milder temps. As we watch rain for us, we are also looking to the east, across the Atlantic as trouble in the tropics may be brewing. So far this season it has been very active and the question now become is Fay or even Gustav not far away? There are several areas that we are watching closely so lets take a look.

Invest 92:

(Computer forecast model - Invest 92 - Courtesy: Weather Underground)

We are closely monitoring “Invest 92″ in the central Atlantic this morning. The wave has been fairly disorganized over the past few days but has shown a trend of becoming better organized over the past 12 hours or so. The latest satellite pics show tunderstorms increasing around the center of a broad, elongated circulation. The big question is what becmomes of “92″? I do believe that this system does develop and becomes a depression in the next day or so and eventually a Tropical Storm by mid-week. This most likely will become “Fay”. The forecast path is the next question which has us paying close attention. The composite image above shows a definite threat to the Lesser Antillies by the middle of the week. Several of the intensity models grow “92″ to a tropical storm by then, with the GFS being the most agressive, taking it to a hurricane in three days. This track forecast is very similar to paths that have led to strikes on the U.S. coastline. Where, you ask? Too early to tell even if or when…the system has to develop first, then have a few days for the forecast models to work with it, then we may have a good idea. However, this path combined with climatology would mean that the folks in South Florida and the Gulf of Mexico could be looking at a Hurricane in the area by late in the weekend. More to come on “92″.

Cape Verde Wave:

(Infrared Eastern Atlantic Satellite - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The National Hurricane Center is watching a very strong tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa yesterday and is now south of the Cape Verde Islands. All the forecast models have been grabbing on to this system and agressively developing it over the next few days. I do expect this system to quickly organize and become a depression and then a tropical storm. The wave is at a very low latitude and should cross the Atlantic in a few days and may eventually pose a threat to the Lesser Antillies by the first of next week. This wave bears watching as it has the potential to become a strong hurricane with winds aloft favorable for development and plenty of warm water ahead of it. Time will tell and we will be watching!

The bottom line is that the U.S. may have two separate tropical systems to deal with in the coming days…something now to prepare for. The peak of the season is approaching…

We will have updates here often every day so check back often…

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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