How about the rain this morning! I know for most folks it was and will be a hamper for travel today but we are getting a good thing as we need to erase some of the drought deficit and water the lawns…all for free thanks to Mother Nature. There is a chance for some strong to severe storms this afternoon so keep an eye to the sky and stay with us here on Live 5 Weather on the air and on-line all day in-case watches or warnings are issued.

Out in the Atlantic our two tropical waves are still holding on but are struggling to get their act together…which is good. The longer they take to develop, the better as they move west. The National Hurricane Center says both this morning have a “medium 20-50%” chance of developing.

INVEST 92L:

(Infrared Satellite - INVEST 92L - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The morning satellite pics show a decrease in showers and storms since Tuesday afternoon. The outflow to the north is not as well defined this morning and there is some evidence of drier air being mixed into the system from the surrounding SAL (Saharan Air Layer). There is still no defined surface circulation and the Hurricane Hunter flight to 92L today has been canceled. It still looks that 92L will have plenty of time to develop and grow and our forecast still calls for a gradual development into a depression over the next few days.

(Forecast Model Plots - INVEST 92L - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The forecast models in general still take the wave/depression/storm/hurricane…what ever you want to call it…in the general direction of the southern Bahamas at the end of the forecast cycle over the weekend. The GFDL still wants to paint a strong tropical storm or hurricane over the southern Bahamas on Sunday. Still way to early to make a guess…especially since the system has not even developed yet. If the current forecast was to verify, it could pose a threat to Florida, the Gulf coast and the East Coast depending on the long term track beyond the forecast period. As we always say….we will keep watching.

INVEST 93L:

(Visible Satellite - INVEST 93L - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

Our second wave further out in the central Atlantic is looking a bit better this morning. The visible and infrared satellite images do show an increase in convection and a better orginization to the overall cloud pattern. There are signs that upper level outflow may be trying to become better established to the north along with some banding features in the lower levels. There is still no well defined surface circulation, but development is slowly expected. The forecast models are now showing a more northward bias as seen below. There is still a doubt as to the turn back to the northeast at the end of the forecast period as indicated. I still feel a more westward track is prudent, but it all depends on the extent of the Azores high as it rebuild westward. This one still may be one to watch for the East Coast of the U.S.
(Tropical Forecast Model Plots-INVEST 93L-Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

Will have more as things develop and stay weather alert today as all the rain moves in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

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