Our weather will be pretty nice now that what is left of Fay is moving away to the northeast.  We’ll see some nice weather tonight with only an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  The weekend looks typical August with hazy sunshine and just a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm.  Highs will be back to near 90.

Gustav will continue to grow after killing 11 people so far in Haiti and the Dominican Republic!  This has the potential to be a category III hurricane pointed at perhaps New Orleans, Gulf Port MS or Mobile AL on Sunday.  Labor Day weekend brings thousands of tourists to the Gulf Coast and the timing on this could not be worse.  We will continue to monitor the progress of Gustav and update you on every show and on line.

Weather is pretty quiet compared to the last week or so around these parts.  Had a nice lunch with an Air Force friend who just got a much deserved promotion to Lt. Colonel.  Congrats Lt. Col. (sel) Dan Zubryd one of our great C-17 pilots.

Well, time to get ready for tonight’s show.  We hope you can join us for the evening broadcasts and tune in for an update with the latest information on tomorrow’s weather and Gustav before you go to bed at 11.

Have a great night.

Bill

Watching Gustav now over Haiti.  This storm has the potential to become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico in about 4 to 5 days.  After that, it really depends on the position and strength of the ridge over the southeast US and a trough moving east.

Folks along the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida will need to monitor the progress of Gustav.  We’ll have an update for you during our shows tonight.

More rain for parts of the state today as the left over rain from Fay continues to rotate around the dying storm which is well to our east. 

Busy here in the Storm Center, so we hope you join us for tonight’s broadcasts.

 Have a great Wednesday tomorrow!

Bill

Okay, we’ll talk weather first and then about our weekend trip to North Carolina and a stop at South of the Border for gas!

First, Gustav is born!  Yes, the seventh named storm of the 2008 season is developing over the Caribbean and it looks like it will be a fast grower.  Look for Gustav to become a hurricane as early as tomorrow given current satellite pictures and the recon reports on the system.  Looks like we’ll see a path across or near Cuba then, tough to tell, but folks along the Gulf states will have to keep an eye on Gustav.  We’ll have the latest here and on all our broadcasts tonight along with the actual hurricane hunter flight reports.  That’s something new along with a better look at the computer “spaghetti” maps that we now have.

Our weather continues to be moisture fed with the afternoon heating creates some heavy rainfall that does not move too much.  Look for more of this pattern until the left over Fay circulation moves north by Thursday.  The upcoming holiday weekend actually looks drier and nice.

Okay, now a few words about our weekend.  Janet, the kids and I (along with little brother who needed a lift) decided to visit my sister in North Carolina.  I’ve been living in Charleston for 22 years this week and have NEVER stopped at South of the Border in my many travels by the brightly lighted oasis in Dillon County, until now.

On the way home from what was a great visit, we needed some gas.  The kids said, “hey, how about stopping at South of the Border?”  It was on the Discovery Channel or one of those channels during a “truck stop” show.

Now my expectations were not very high for this model of the American roadside motoring stop.  Once I saw it up close, got gas and used the “restroom” my expectations were greatly underestimated!  It was worse. Wow, Pedro might have been something back in the 70’s but he really needs a makeover.  Not only was the place dirty and old, but the folks working there clearly did not want to be there and let the customers know that by their service.

I suggest that the South Carolina DOT increase the speed limit near that exit so that you don’t have to spend much too close!

The Coastal Carolina Fair is just a couple of months away, but today we were in the studio shooting some spots for the fair which kicks off with Three Dog Night this year on the main stage.  My friend Sonya Pearlman who represents the Fair, says it will be a great time for all.

Also spent some time at the dentist today.  That’s always fun, well not really.  Nice folks though.

Okay, we’re going to go and track Gustav and have updates for you into tonight and the week ahead.  We’ll also have an update on all those showers that have been around. 

We hope you join us for tonight’s evening broadcasts and come back before you go to bed at 11 tonight.

Have a great night!

Bill

The sun finally poked out for a few hours today, but it made it rather uncomfortable with the humidity. Tropical Storm Fay continues to slowly move west along the panhandle of Florida. It is forecast to continue to weaken and will most likely be a depression by Sunday. Heavy rain will continue across the deep south for the next few days, but it looks like our rain chances will slowly decrease by midweek. There will still be some deep tropical moisture in place around our area, so afternoon thunderstorms will remain in the forecast with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

We continue to watch the tropics very carefully as we may have our next depression in the Caribbean by early next week. The next name on the list by the way is Gustav.

Well that’s about it for today. We’ll chat some more on Sunday as we head into the last week of August (can you believe it).

Have a great Sunday !!

Fay, 200 miles or so to our south, is battering Florida with over 30 inches of rain in just two days.  We’re seeing bands of rain with gusty winds around 25 to 35 mph, and we’re that far away!

This just shows you the power of tropical weather systems.  We’ll see this on shore flow with those embedded heavy rain squalls with the gusty winds through tomorrow as Fay begins to move west in North Florida.  We’ve seen some power outages and can expect some isolated outages through tomorrow as well.

We have a high surf advisory and lake wind advisory in effect along with a gale warning for the harbor and coastal waters.  Bottom line, gusty weather continues through Friday and until Fay weakens and the pressure gradient weakens here.  Beach erosion is also a big factor and rip currents with 8 foot waves coming up from the south.

We’ll continue to monitor Fay here in the Storm Center and have all the new information at 5, 6, 7 and 11.

Enjoyed lunch with the Air Force Reserve Public Affairs team today as we get ready to move into fall.  Busy times for the Air Force and all of us active reservists.

If Fay stays well to the south, I’m going to take the day off and head to my sister’s house in North Carolina with the kids for the weekend.  So far, kids and school are doing well and I’m proud of our new 5th and 7th graders.  Janet keeps track of our morning commute from The Wolf (96.9 FM) and it’s starting to smooth out.  Little brother coming along to North Carolina as he hooks up with a ride from there to New York City where he will be a City University of New York Fellow this coming semester.  I’m very proud of him and look forward to his graduation from law school in a few years. 

That’s about it for now.  If Fay comes more north, I’ll be here tomorrow, but if it’s the same and moving west with no threat, Scott will have the con and I’ll be back on Monday.  We hope you join us for tonight’s early broadcasts and return for a new Fay update before you turn in at 11.

Have a great weekend!

Bill

Well, we’ve been looking for rain across Florida and Georgia for the last year or so.  Very dry there and an extreme drought in some places.  Fay will be the king maker when it comes to that.  Look for lots of rain, up to 15-20 inches in Florida and parts of Southeast Georgia because of the slow movement of Fay.  The two day total for Melbourne so far is 13.5″! Our rainfall totals will be around 2-3, but perhaps higher depending on the speed and on shore flow.  We might see higher amounts along the coastline.

Winds will stay up over the next two to three days as Fay moves west into Florida, the pressure difference with the big, blocking high to the north will keep it breezy and at times, gusty especially along the coast.

Looks like such a slow movement will keep the chance of rain here for the next few days and into the weekend.  Look for Fay to weaken and diminish the moist flow after Saturday and Sunday.

Busy day again here in the Storm Center.  Morning commute with the kids back to school went well as that alarm went off oh so early!  Hope your days are going well.

Scott and I hope you join us for tonight’s broadcast as we bring you the latest on Fay.

Bill

Well, It’s a tough call with Fay because of the trough to the north lifting out, the timing of a ridge building back and where that storm will turn west after the high builds in.  Here’s a quick rundown I posted on our regular site:

Watching Tropical Storm Fay over South Florida this evening and tonight while looking at the future impacts of the storm here in the Lowcountry.  Fay should move off the coast of Florida during the early morning hours of Wednesday.  This will put the storm back over the ocean and we could see some slow strengthening during that period.  Current thinking takes Fay back to the coast near Brunswick or Jacksonville on Thursday.  If this track verifies, we would be seeing a fair amount of rainfall as she heads inland to our south.  Any further north for landfall would change the amount of rain and type of impact here.  Right now look for a wet Wed, Thu and Fri with gusty winds and isolated tornadoes within those bands.  Stay informed and continue to monitor the progression of Fay.

Now the radar shows Fay moving north/northeast and the hurricane center is being rather conservative on the estimates of restrengthening.  We’ll just have to see how long the storm will stay over the water and the amount of shear and a slight dry air entrainment along the southern semicircle. 

Bottom line is that we could see a lot of rain from the storm if it heads towards Brunswick or Jacksonville for a second landfall.  The more up the coast and later that turn takes, the more impact for us.  That would mean more rain and higher winds with the potential of some storm surge if the center passes less than 100 miles to our south.

So, we’ll have new info during the 5 p.m. broadcasts and another new package from the hurricane center at 11. 

All of our meteorologists have been here watching this thing.  I came in at 11 a.m. to see the latest and we all talked about how well the structure of the storm is doing over “land.”  Land is relative in South Florida because of the amount of swamp and wetlands which will slow any rapid weakening which would be more common over hard landmass.  We are fascinated with this forecast and will continue to refine it.

During this time we get many calls and questions which we try to answer.  The biggest is where it’s going and that’s still tough at this hour.

Had a busy day getting the storm tracker ready to deploy if needed.   Also watching “Invest 94L” which is half way across the Atlantic and not doing much at the moment, we’ll just have to see if it can get some moisture involved with it’s broad circulation.

Took my father for lunch and enjoyed a fair amount of sunshine.  Lunch was good and we’re getting ready for the kids to start back to school.  Yes, lookout Lowcountry as I hit the commute again in the morning on the way to school!  Weird sleeping habits when the kids are in school.  Janet does the radio show and goes to work at 4:30 a.m.  I get the kids up at six and bring them to school for 8.  But I go to bed around 1:30 a.m. depending on when I get home from the late broadcasts.  So, I’ll sleep again at 8:15 a.m. or so for a few hours.  Are you following along so far?  Crazy schedule but it seems to work out. 

We’ll keep you posted on all of this and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcasts.  Have a great night!

Bill

Wow…what a crazy couple of days with computer models flip flopping back and forth and Fay not wanting any of it!

 New guidance shows a weakening tropical storm moving north towards Jacksonville FLA then taking a sharp turn left towards Brunswick and on to Atlanta! 

Looks like all the models build the ridge to the north and east of Fay rather strongly and this makes sense given the current and short term synoptic changes w/ the trough that will be pulling out as another moves east.

This storm is trying to get better organized, but does not have much time and the conditions are only marginal for strengthening with some dry air entraining on the west side and some shear. 

Bottom line is that we’re looking at on and off rain showers into Wed/Thu & Fri with some heavy rains possible and gusty winds.  We could see some isolated tornadoes as we remain to the north and east of the center.

 We’ll keep you posted for sure.  Busy here in the Storm Center.  All of us are watching every model run and seeing what the computers are thinking then looking at the actual model consistency.

We’ll have new information at 11 and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcast.

Bill

After a brief move across west-central Cuba overnight, Tropical Storm Fay is starting to make her move off the northern coast of the island into the Florida Straights. The latest hurricane hunter reports indicate that the winds are starting to come up slightly and as of the 8:00 AM EDT advisory were up to 60mph from 50mph at 5am this morning. Fay continues to look a bit lop-sided on the satellite pics this morning. All of the deep convection is displaced to the east and northeast of the center thanks to dry air and a bit of upper level shear to the west of the storm. Now that the center is moving back over open, warm water a brief period will open up for Fay to strengthen. With upper level conditions still favorable, it is likely that Fay will become a Category 1 Hurricane before making landfall on the Florida west coast sometime tomorrow.

(GOES INFRARED SATELLITE - IMAGE COURTESY: NOAA/NHC)

THE TRACK FORECAST:

With the western side weaker, I don’t anticipate any rapid intensification like we saw with Hurricane Charley back in 2004. However, if Fay can rebuild a solid internal core, the intensity would gradually begin to build as the eyewall became more established. Even if Fay remains a moderate to strong tropical storm, she is going to dump lots of heavy rain on South Florida over the next 36 hours. Hurricane watches along with Tropical Storm watches/warning are already posted there and I anticipate those will slowly be moved northward as the storm wobbles NNW.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots- Image Courtes: SFWMD)

The forecast track has come into somewhat better alignment this morning, tightly clustered on a landfall somewhere near or south of the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, very near where Charley made landfall in Port Charlotte, Fl back in 2004. If Fay can stay over the warm waters and off the coast, she may reach Landfall as a Cat 1 storm, but as she moves inland it won’t take long before she falls back to a Tropical Storm.

LOWCOUNTRY IMPACTS: 

The exact impacts here on our stretch of the coast is still unwritten…until we see exactly where Fay makes landfall and the forecast track inland. If you look at the NHC official track, it brings the center of T.S. Fay just west of the Lowcountry on Thursday. This would put us on the eastern side of the storm, and open up the possibility of isolated severe weather with tornadoes and heavy rain the biggest threat. I have seen a bit more of an eastward trend in the model runs this morning and that will have to be watched closely.

(NHC Official Forecast Track - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

More to come after the late morning model runs are in house….just get ready for rain and wind mid to late week.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Okay….busy in the Storm Center today.

 Bottom line on FAY….we need to watch it.  Current track and NHC thinking is up the west coast of Florida. 

This all comes down to timing.  The trough moving off the east coast will help turn the storm north, then a ridge builds as it exits, perhaps forcing the storm more west at the end of the period.

The models are hinting a tad more left of track this evening, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out.  A couple bring it along the east coast of Florida and another towards New Orleans!  So, we just need to look at all the runs and see where the consensus is. 

If the storm would be more right of track in time, that could be a problem for us seeing that it would be over water and would intensify, perhaps into a category III or IV.  If it takes the current forecast track, the land mass interaction will keep it at bay, perhaps a tropical storm for its life.  The mountians of the Dominican Republic and Cuba will be key to keeping this from becoming a major hurricane.

Again, lots of uncertainties.  We have to watch this storm carefully and will do so here all weekend and into next week.

Hope you have a great weekend.  We’ll keep you posted on the storm.

Bill