Well there are two things for sure that will be in the news over the next couple of weeks…Politics and the Tropics and neither look to go away for a good while. We will leave the politics to the news department and hit the ground running with the latest on Gustav and our newest tropical child, Tropical Depression #8.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV:

(NHC Forecast - Gustav | Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

Gustav has been making a trek further to the south over the past 12-18 hours and has recently shown a burst of fairly intensive strengthening, going from 50 mph to 70 mph winds in just a few hours. The latest RECON flight is still in the storm and will most likely find data to bring Gustav back to hurricane status by the 11am advisory. The center is not that far off the eastern tip of Jamaica and is going to give that island nation a battering today. The overall thinking on Gustav in the short term has not changed. The storm should move south of Jamaica today and be south of Cuba tomorrow afternoon over very warm water. The intensity and forecast path beyond three days is still what is in question. The official forecast from the NHC lies on the western side of the guidance envelope but the models are still a bit more divergent this morning. Some say west of Louisiana, some say near New Orleans and some are as far east as the Pensacola area. The threat is real now that we are fairly confident of a landfall on the northern Gulf coast but the strength is still the biggest unknown. The NHC keeps the official forecast as a Cat. 3 at landfall but depending on ocean temps, wind shear and other factors, it could be weaker or stronger. To early to tell just yet.

(Model Plots- Gustav - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

(A.M. Visible Image - Gustav - Image Courtesy: NOAA)

We will continue to watch the latest info on Gustav today to see if the strengthening trends continue and will have more here on the blog and on the air.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT:

(NHC Official Forecast - TD8 - Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

Just in time for the early morning wake up call comes Tropical Depression #8 over the tropical Mid-Atlantic. As of 5am, TD8 was looking very well developed on the satellite views and will most likely upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna at the 11am advisory cycle. TD8 has a very well developed low level center of circulation and a developing CDO (Central Dense Overacast) which signals the slow strengthening has begun. All the reliable models keep the system as a tropical storm through Saturday night then bring it to hurriane status as it approaches the eastern Bahamas at the first of next week. We will have to keep an eye on what will become Hanna due to the models forecasting a sharp left turn at the end of the 5 day period in response to high pressure building over the New England states. If this happens, Hanna may track westward in the direction of the upper Bahamas, Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastlines. Its more than to early to make a guess here but we will watch it daily to see what happens of course. Still would be a good idea this weekend to check your supplies and make sure you have everything you may need.

(Tropical Forecast Models - TD8 - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

(A.M.Visible Satellite - TD8 - Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The tropics could become even more active with several more waves closer to Africa showing signs of possible development so stay tuned!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Good Wednesday Morning. We are feeling the humidity here across the lowcountry thanks to the remaining tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Fay over eastern Tennessee. The heaviest rainfall has been well north of the Charleston area the past day or so which has allowed us to dry out a bit. Nice to see the sunshine again but I did not miss the muggy and hotter afternoons that are on the way back in. You can always get the latest forecast on our main weather page by clicking the weather link in the menu at the top of this webpage.

All our attention over the next few days will be on Gustav. A Hurricane yesterday that weakened overnight to a tropical storm thanks to the high mountains of southwesten Haiti. The latest information that continues to stream into the storm center shows a growing, in fact ominous threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast as we come out of the upcoming weekend. Here is the latest…

(Infrared Satellite - T.S. Gustav - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The latest RECON reports from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters show that the center of Gustav has finally moved back over water this morning. As the center slowly begins to trek west-northwestward, slow strengthening and rebuilding should begin to take place. The very high mountians of southern Haiti and southeast Cuba are very effective at tearing the lower to mid levels of tropical systems apart. There are indicaitons that the internal core of Gustav has been disrupted by its pass over land, but the latest VORTEX report does still show an elongated eye that is open to the southwest.

As the center rebuilds, the upper levels should remain favorable for steady strengthening. There is a low 10-15 knots of wind shear aloft that is forecast to subside over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves westward, in fact an upper level anticyclone (high pressure aloft) is forecast to build in as the storm approaches the waters south of Cuba into the Yucatan Channel. This, combined with some of the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic Basin could be a setup for an extended period of rapid intensificaiton. We will have to see how long it takes Gustav to regain its composure. The shorter the time, the quicker it will grow. We hope that it remains a weaker system but even an interaction with Cuba should not have a lasting effect on the system once it is back over the warmer waters of the Windward Passage.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast models with Gustav are in a whole different ballgame than what we had with Fay. Gustav is being well represented in the majority of the runs and they are all now beginning to really agree that a Gulf of Mexico hurricane is ahead. The view from the cheap seats this morning would show a major, potentially catastrophic hurricane in the nothern GOM late this weekend into the first days of next week.

GFDL Model - Click To Enlarge

HWRF Model - Click To Enlarge

The GFDL and HWRF show a very tight track from southeast Louisiana to Biloxi, Mississippi with landfall Monday as a Category 3/4. The UKMET is still the furthest left, with a bias towards the upper Texas coast while the NOGAPS and a few others inclding the GFS are further east toward Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. So…the bottom line here is if you have friends and family on the Northern Gulf coast from roughly Apalachacola, Fl west to Galveston, TX they need to be making plans now for a possible strike from a major hurricane. If you have travel plans to the region next week, please stay very intouch with the forecast, because if this trend does verify, I would expect evacuation orders issued over the weekend for parts of the north-central coast from Louisiana to Alabama.

Lets do hope that Gustav weakens or changes paths and takes our friends there out of harms way…however with the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Friday, all eyes will be watching another storm that may tear apart what most folks have just gotten put back together.

We are also watching a few more waves that show some signs of development over the central and eastern Atlantic. Several of the forecast models do develop them and move them in the general directon of Bermuda or so. May have to watch them here along the coast but for now…no problems.

We, of course, will be watching and waiting with the latest on Gustav here on the blog and on the air. We hope you join us for the broadcasts throughout the day.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Friday is starting showery again as the far outer bands of Tropical Storm Fay continue to pump a bunch of tropical moisture into the region. Live SuperDoppler 5000 below still shows a lot of wet weather rolling into the Georgia coastline, which has led to flooding in many locations south of Savannah.

(Live Super Doppler 5000 - WCSC TV, Charleston SC)

The rain and storms could continue to rotate onshore during the day today as Fay continues her slow westward march across northern Florida. The lastest plots show that as of 8am she was near Gainesville, Florida, home of the Univ. of Florida. The latest forecast path below shows Fay moving westward toward the Florida gulf coast and the Alabama beaches by the end of the weekend. The QPF rainfall charts show that some areas near the center could get over an additional 20″ of rain!

(NHC 3 Day Tropical Forecast Map - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

(NCEP HPC 5 Day Rainfall Forecast - Image Courtesy: NOAA/HPC)

There is really no doubt that Fay will have officially soaked every square inch of the State of Florida. Some parts of south Alabama and SW Georgia are on their way it looks to dealing with lots of freshwater flooding. This should help wipe out any drought over the Dixie States as the weekend approaches. Just know that if you have to travel west, its going to be windy and wet!

MORE TROPICAL TROUBLE AHEAD?

(Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

Just as soon as we can move Fay out we have to readjust our attention back to the Atlantic as two more areas are poised to develop. Invest 94L and 95L both bear watching as the National Hurricane Center are giving both of them an Medium Chance of development over the next 2-3 days. 94L is the one of most concern as several of the global models forecast the development of a significant hurricane in about 5-7 days. The CMC (Canadian Model) and the ECMWF (European Model) bring the storm toward the Bahamas at the end of the cycle.

CMC Model - Click For Larger Image

ECMWF Model - Click For Larger Image

This bears watching as high pressure over the New England states at that time might try and turn the systems, if they develop, back toward the southeast coast. The latest model forecast plots below show a path very similar to what Fay just took over a week ago!

(94L Computer Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

This will be something that we will watch over the weekend along with the lingering rain from Fay.

Have a good Saturday and Sunday and try to stay dry!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Tropical Storm Fay made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida this morning around 5:00am at Cape Romano, south of Naples with winds at 60 mph. This was the second landfall technically, since she made her first crossing onto land in the Florida Keys on Monday afternoon. Since making landfall the radar representation as well as the satellite views have continued to show a well formed center of circulation.

(Infrared Satellite Image - T.S. FAY - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The cloud shield from Fay is spreading north as far as Jacksonville this morning and the rain bands are as far north as Daytona Beach as of 8:45am at post time. Some recent observations have shown sustained winds as high as 35 mph near and east of the center with several gusts well into the high end of the tropical storm spectrum. Fay did not have enough time over water to reach hurricane strength but was close according to the Hurricane Hunters who did record SFMR winds over 70 mph before landfall. The storm will continue to dump copious amounts of rain on the Sunshine State today with the threat of tornadoes as well. There have already been dozens of warnings issued and this is typical with a well developed, landfalling tropical system.

THE FORECAST …. (FLIP A QUARTER!)

Fay has been giving us fits on her forecast not really in strength but her path. That uncertainty continues this morning between many of the forecast models but there is some good news. They are more in agreement on a short term track across central Florida to a point near Cape Canaveral or just offshore in roughly 12-18 hours.

(Tropcial Forecast Models - T.S. FAY - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The plots above look like spaghetti after I get out of the kitchen..but you can see the “general” agreement in a point near northeast Florida over the next day or so. From there things get a bit sketchy. A strong blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in over the New England states later in the week. This is what is expected to bend Fay back to the west. I feel that our exposure to tropical weather from Fay depends on how quickly she moves northeast and then how fast the ridge is to build in. If the ridge is delayed at all in development, Fay will have some extra time to sit over the coastal waters and regain a little strength. Several models bring Fay back inland near the Florida/Georgia state line then take it westward through southern GA and AL. Some take it back over the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf and move it toward the Mississippi Coast next week! You get the idea that its going to turn left but we just don’t know when and where.

(NHC Forecast - TS FAY - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The NHC/TPC forecast above shows a westward bend starting on Thursday morning. That looks reasonable but is all key on high pressure to our north. This track would keep any significant tropical weather to our south (fingers crossed). It is interesting to note though that the HPC rainfall forecast for the next 5 days has a total between 11-15 inches of rain here with a maxim of 25″ just offshore.

THE BOTTOM LINE….FOR NOW:

Watch for weather to slowly cloud up here late tonight and during the morning on Wednesday as the bands of rain from Fay move further north toward the region. If Fay does not turn as forecast, winds and squally weather will build late on Wednesday overnight into Thursday. Be prepared now for lots of rain ahead for the rest of the week. Flooding may be an issue if the HPC QPF guidance is correct.

More to come later as updates are available.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

After a brief move across west-central Cuba overnight, Tropical Storm Fay is starting to make her move off the northern coast of the island into the Florida Straights. The latest hurricane hunter reports indicate that the winds are starting to come up slightly and as of the 8:00 AM EDT advisory were up to 60mph from 50mph at 5am this morning. Fay continues to look a bit lop-sided on the satellite pics this morning. All of the deep convection is displaced to the east and northeast of the center thanks to dry air and a bit of upper level shear to the west of the storm. Now that the center is moving back over open, warm water a brief period will open up for Fay to strengthen. With upper level conditions still favorable, it is likely that Fay will become a Category 1 Hurricane before making landfall on the Florida west coast sometime tomorrow.

(GOES INFRARED SATELLITE - IMAGE COURTESY: NOAA/NHC)

THE TRACK FORECAST:

With the western side weaker, I don’t anticipate any rapid intensification like we saw with Hurricane Charley back in 2004. However, if Fay can rebuild a solid internal core, the intensity would gradually begin to build as the eyewall became more established. Even if Fay remains a moderate to strong tropical storm, she is going to dump lots of heavy rain on South Florida over the next 36 hours. Hurricane watches along with Tropical Storm watches/warning are already posted there and I anticipate those will slowly be moved northward as the storm wobbles NNW.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots- Image Courtes: SFWMD)

The forecast track has come into somewhat better alignment this morning, tightly clustered on a landfall somewhere near or south of the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, very near where Charley made landfall in Port Charlotte, Fl back in 2004. If Fay can stay over the warm waters and off the coast, she may reach Landfall as a Cat 1 storm, but as she moves inland it won’t take long before she falls back to a Tropical Storm.

LOWCOUNTRY IMPACTS: 

The exact impacts here on our stretch of the coast is still unwritten…until we see exactly where Fay makes landfall and the forecast track inland. If you look at the NHC official track, it brings the center of T.S. Fay just west of the Lowcountry on Thursday. This would put us on the eastern side of the storm, and open up the possibility of isolated severe weather with tornadoes and heavy rain the biggest threat. I have seen a bit more of an eastward trend in the model runs this morning and that will have to be watched closely.

(NHC Official Forecast Track - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

More to come after the late morning model runs are in house….just get ready for rain and wind mid to late week.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Tropical Storm Fay did survive the passage over the Dominican Republic and since it’s time over water the past 12+ hours, it has shown some signs of regeneration but the process is looking slow. Fay may not have time to become a Hurricane before moving over Cuba later this evening and tonight.
(Visible Satellite - GOES FLOATER - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The center of Fay was located near the Gulf of Ana Maria as of the 11am advisory package and was moving slowly northwest toward the southern coast of Cuba. The circulation is showing signs on the visible pics of trying to become better organized but is now fighting some dry air off to the west of the storm. The disrupted core appears to have ingested some of that drier air and that has let to the heaviest rain displaced to the right of the COC (center of circulation). Fay still has the chance to intensify quickly to near hurricane strength before making landfall on Cuba as it is over very warm waters.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast model plots are all still split to the left and right this morning, however the more reliable models are shifted again slightly to the east of the previous runs and the target for initial landfall in the U.S. is the southernmost Florida Keys, near Key West and then on up the west coast of the peninsula between Ft. Myers and the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The intensity plots along with the official forecast from the NHC does make Fay a hurricane before landfall on the western Florida Gulf Coast, most likely as a Category 1 storm, but there is the chance of a much stronger hurricane as the Gulf waters are very warm. Fay has to re-develop a solid inner core in order to continue strengthening. There is some evidence of this in the latest data but until Fay moves away from Cuba, the hurricane hunters can’t get a good read on the internal structure.

The question for the lowcountry down the road is what does Fay bring us? There are some hints that we may have to deal with a possible third landfall on the South Carolina coast as fay re-emerges over the extreme western Atlantic, near Jacksonville and moves northeast toward the South/North Carolina coastline. Depending on the amount of weakening while over Florida, we could still see tropical storm or hurricane conditions later next week. The plots from the NHC keep the storm to our west inland over the Savannah river as a tropical storm, which would give us a a fairly significant severe weather threat Tuesday - Thursday. This is all based on model forecast trends. Until Fay moves inland and time progresses over the next few days we will not have a solid hold on the potential threats here.

(Official NHC Forecast - Image Courtesy: National Hurricane Center)

The NHC has Fay just west of Beaufort on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm. This bears close watching as a bend slightly to the east would mean that tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings would be necessary in the days ahead for the region. Hurricane Watches are already posted for the Florida Keys northward up the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of Florida.

Thats the latest in a quiclk glance here on Sunday morning. If things change I will post again later this evening. Otherwise Join Brad Miller and Chief Meteorologist Bill Walsh on the evening broadcasts tonight. I will have the latest for you on Monday morning starting at 5AM.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Good Saturday Morning…will do a quick update here and have more after the 12Z models are all in house.

All eyes are still on Fay this morning and she is holding her own over the high mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The satellite view shows a large convective mass south of the somewhat uncertain COC (center of circulation).

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NASA/MSFC)

As we typically see on systems as they pass over the islands, the internal structure is a bit disrupted with the heaviest storms displaced to the north or south over the warmer and smoother waters. The hurricane hunters have reported a hard time finding the exact center of the storm as they flew around the entire island. I would not be suprised to see the center migrate or try and reform just off the south coast of Haiti as it moves westward. The overall storm structure looks very well defined this morning with upper level outflow established on all sides. There is evidence of on and off spiraling bands on radar. The big questions remain…how does Fay interact with her continued passage over land then sea then land again, how much can she strengthen while over the water and how does the overall synoptic setup in the future impact her path?

Those are all questions lots of forecasters are working to answer. I will say this…it looks better for us that we will not be in a position for a “direct hit” as it appeared yesterday as all the dynamical tropical models have moved the path to the west, along with the NHC official forecast track. But as we alyways say, you cant focus on the “black line”. The entire “forecast cone” is what to look for and yes, we still fall in that cone. Here is the latest look at the model data as of 9:00am EDT:

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

As you can see the guidance package is tightly clustered on a track along the southwest coast of Cuba in to the Florida Straits and then paralleling the west coast of Florida with a landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida, near St. Marks. With that being said, look at the spread though…from south of Mobile Bay east to Wilmington, N.C. so you see why we cant hang out hat on any point just yet. The further west Fay moves over the Caribbean before her northward turn, the more the track will move to the west. If she turns north sooner, the track will bend bak a bit more to the east. The intensity forecast is just as tricky. If Fay can remain somewhat consolidated as it exits the coast of Haiti, it will have a good environment for fairly quick strengthening. There is just a question on how quickly she can take advantage of the warm waters before moving over the southeast coast of Cuba. The NHC forecast makes her a hurricane once she brushes back over the Gulf of Ana Maria (water just off the south central coast of Cuba). She is forecast to maintain hurricane strength across western Cuba and strengthen as she moves up the Florida coast. If Fay can tap the heat potential in the water and quickly get her act together, there is a reasonable possibility that she could reach Category 2 status as she approaches the Sunshine State. (Let us note though that a more westward track over the waters south of Cuba would allow explosive development as the oceanic heat content there is very impressive and could lead to rapid intensification).

It’s all still really a wait and see game. I don’t want folks here in the Lowcountry to dismiss the storm totally just yet. With a landfall to our south and west on the Gulf Coast, we still have a good chance of getting some heavy rain and strong storms as the center moves inland. So…stay with us here on the Blog..and on Live 5 News.com and we will have the latest updates through the weekend.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

I will say that I am very suprised that the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed surface circulation yesterday when they flew through 92L. Both the Air Force KC-130W and the NOAA high altitude jet was in the system yesterday at the same time, looking and searching. They found a well developed low pressure center that just had not made it to the surface yet. This morning, the satellite pictures show a developing system.

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NOAA/CIRA)

The morning satellite pictures show a good looking, fairly symmetrical system with upper level outflow established to the north, east and south. A burst of heavy storms this morning was evident right over San Juan both on satellite and Puerto Rico radar images. Radar does show lots of heavy rain and indications of spiraling bands developing to the northeast of the island. The center of the mid level circulation appears to be just off the northern coast of the island with the heaviest storms displaced to the south of the center. There is lots of data to look at now with this system, all with just about any outcome you want so lets look at what we see as the most viable solution…

THE FORECAST PATH:

All the tropical forecast models continue to push the idea of a general north of west track over the next 50 hours or so.

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

As the storm continues to the west-northwest it should start it’s poleward turn in response to a mid-level trough of low pressure that is expected to be over the central U.S. at the first of next week. There is some debate on wheteher the trough will be strong enough to pull it off the coast at this point. As you can see from the model plots, this is a troubling path for the Bahamas, the Florida east coast as well as Georgia and South Carolina. There are too many varying model solutions out there now to make a definitive call, but we must watch this closely. If the system stay somewhat disorganized today, it may move more westward over the island of Hispanola, which would weaken the system. If it moves more over the open waters offshore, look for a growing system. With that being said, lets look at the intensity forecast.

HOW STRONG?

The look of 92L on the satellite already shows a system getting better and better organized by the hour. the upper level shear is low, less than 10 knots and it should stay that way over the next five days or so. An upper level anticyclone (high pressure) is building over the region and that will help vent the upper levels of the storm, making the upper level conditions about perfect for intensification. In the lower levels, as soon as the low level circulation can close off the growth should really begin. The storm is still surrounded by some drier air, but it is deep enough now that it has moistened the atmosphere enough that it should not feel any effects from the Saharan Air Layer.

(Tropical Intensity Forecast - Image Courtesy: Colorado State University)

The tropical intensity models all take the system just about directly to a tropical storm and then show a gradual increase to a Category 1 storm. As the system approaches the Bahamas toward the end of the weekend the SHIPS and GFDL both make it a Category 2 storm. With the warm water and low shear, it could be even stronger than forecast. Remember…there is much less accuracy in the fields of intensity forecasting so stay on top of the forecast day by day for the latest.

WHERE DOES IT GO?

Thats a question that I wish someone could answer for me! 92L is currently in a location that bears close watching as it could affect folks from the central Gulf Coast, around Florida to the coast of the Carolinas. My best guess this morning is that once the system can “officially” develop it continues west-northwest very near the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Cuba through Saturday. If the storm tracks over the islands, the high mountains could weaken or tear the system apart. If the center stays over water, look for a gradual increase in strength. The oceanic heat content in the water around the Bahamas is very high and this could lead to rapid intensification. There is a moderate chance of a strong Category 2 hurricane in the central Bahamas by the end of the weekend. Beyond that, it all depends on the upper level steering currents as to whether it stalls off the Florida coast, moves toward the Gulf of Mexico or makes a bee line toward the Carolinas. It must be noted that the GFDL has a Category 4 hurricane off the southern South Carolina coastline next Wednesday…just to reinforce the idea we have to be ready.
(GFDL Forecast - Click For Full Size Image - Image Courtesy: Florida State Univesity) 

The general consensus is that it’s a good time to keep tuned to the forecast. There may be no threat to us but the setup bears close watching…which we will do. Make sure that if you have a generator, it is working and you have all the necessary supples you need to protect your home if that becomes the case. Stay with us here on the Blog all weekend long as more and more data becomes available.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

How about the rain this morning! I know for most folks it was and will be a hamper for travel today but we are getting a good thing as we need to erase some of the drought deficit and water the lawns…all for free thanks to Mother Nature. There is a chance for some strong to severe storms this afternoon so keep an eye to the sky and stay with us here on Live 5 Weather on the air and on-line all day in-case watches or warnings are issued.

Out in the Atlantic our two tropical waves are still holding on but are struggling to get their act together…which is good. The longer they take to develop, the better as they move west. The National Hurricane Center says both this morning have a “medium 20-50%” chance of developing.

INVEST 92L:

(Infrared Satellite - INVEST 92L - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The morning satellite pics show a decrease in showers and storms since Tuesday afternoon. The outflow to the north is not as well defined this morning and there is some evidence of drier air being mixed into the system from the surrounding SAL (Saharan Air Layer). There is still no defined surface circulation and the Hurricane Hunter flight to 92L today has been canceled. It still looks that 92L will have plenty of time to develop and grow and our forecast still calls for a gradual development into a depression over the next few days.

(Forecast Model Plots - INVEST 92L - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The forecast models in general still take the wave/depression/storm/hurricane…what ever you want to call it…in the general direction of the southern Bahamas at the end of the forecast cycle over the weekend. The GFDL still wants to paint a strong tropical storm or hurricane over the southern Bahamas on Sunday. Still way to early to make a guess…especially since the system has not even developed yet. If the current forecast was to verify, it could pose a threat to Florida, the Gulf coast and the East Coast depending on the long term track beyond the forecast period. As we always say….we will keep watching.

INVEST 93L:

(Visible Satellite - INVEST 93L - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

Our second wave further out in the central Atlantic is looking a bit better this morning. The visible and infrared satellite images do show an increase in convection and a better orginization to the overall cloud pattern. There are signs that upper level outflow may be trying to become better established to the north along with some banding features in the lower levels. There is still no well defined surface circulation, but development is slowly expected. The forecast models are now showing a more northward bias as seen below. There is still a doubt as to the turn back to the northeast at the end of the forecast period as indicated. I still feel a more westward track is prudent, but it all depends on the extent of the Azores high as it rebuild westward. This one still may be one to watch for the East Coast of the U.S.
(Tropical Forecast Model Plots-INVEST 93L-Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

Will have more as things develop and stay weather alert today as all the rain moves in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Back to work this morning and back to the forecast, which in the days ahead, looks wet for us here in the Lowcountry with milder temps. As we watch rain for us, we are also looking to the east, across the Atlantic as trouble in the tropics may be brewing. So far this season it has been very active and the question now become is Fay or even Gustav not far away? There are several areas that we are watching closely so lets take a look.

Invest 92:

(Computer forecast model - Invest 92 - Courtesy: Weather Underground)

We are closely monitoring “Invest 92″ in the central Atlantic this morning. The wave has been fairly disorganized over the past few days but has shown a trend of becoming better organized over the past 12 hours or so. The latest satellite pics show tunderstorms increasing around the center of a broad, elongated circulation. The big question is what becmomes of “92″? I do believe that this system does develop and becomes a depression in the next day or so and eventually a Tropical Storm by mid-week. This most likely will become “Fay”. The forecast path is the next question which has us paying close attention. The composite image above shows a definite threat to the Lesser Antillies by the middle of the week. Several of the intensity models grow “92″ to a tropical storm by then, with the GFS being the most agressive, taking it to a hurricane in three days. This track forecast is very similar to paths that have led to strikes on the U.S. coastline. Where, you ask? Too early to tell even if or when…the system has to develop first, then have a few days for the forecast models to work with it, then we may have a good idea. However, this path combined with climatology would mean that the folks in South Florida and the Gulf of Mexico could be looking at a Hurricane in the area by late in the weekend. More to come on “92″.

Cape Verde Wave:

(Infrared Eastern Atlantic Satellite - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The National Hurricane Center is watching a very strong tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa yesterday and is now south of the Cape Verde Islands. All the forecast models have been grabbing on to this system and agressively developing it over the next few days. I do expect this system to quickly organize and become a depression and then a tropical storm. The wave is at a very low latitude and should cross the Atlantic in a few days and may eventually pose a threat to the Lesser Antillies by the first of next week. This wave bears watching as it has the potential to become a strong hurricane with winds aloft favorable for development and plenty of warm water ahead of it. Time will tell and we will be watching!

The bottom line is that the U.S. may have two separate tropical systems to deal with in the coming days…something now to prepare for. The peak of the season is approaching…

We will have updates here often every day so check back often…

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist