TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 450 MILES
...725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...78.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

________________________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NORTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. 

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...62.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

You can tell we are getting close to the peak of hurricane season when the tropical updates take longer to do than the forecast! The big story over the holiday weekend will be what happens with Tropical Storm Gustav down on the Gulf of Mexico coast and then later next week, what eventually happens with Tropical Storm Hanna. Here is where we stand as of post this morning.

T.S. GUSTAV:

(Gustav Satellite - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

Gustav made it’s way off the western coast of Jamacia this morning according to a VORTEX report from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight investigating the system. The report showed Gustav somewhat ragged internally after its pass over the island. There was an open eyewall and the representation on the radar at flight level was ragged. Does this mean that Gus is in trouble? Not at all. We expected Jamacia to weaken the storm but now there is nothing between Gustav and major hurricane status except warm water and a brush with the Cayman Islands which will not affect the storm at all.

It is interesting to see that Gustav has really grown in size over the past 18-24 hours, almost twice what it was this time yesterday. The storm should continue to get larger as it moves closer to the Gulf and the U.S. Coastline late in the weekend.

(Gustav Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The forecast models have all shifted eastward again on the 06Z runs for the most part, however some still remain to the west of the official NHC path. The landfall chances are high all the way from the central Texas coast this morning to Panama City, Florida. Most of the models still are pointing dead on at southeastern Louisiana, near New Orleans eastward to the Alabama gulf coast, near Mobile. The NHC forecast does lie on the far western side of the 06Z runs and we may see it nudged back to the east a bit on the 11AM advisory package. Intensity forecasts are our most unreliable area. There is no reason why Gus will not become a major hurricane. The water is the warmest in the Atlantic basin, the upper level shear is very low and a ridge of high pressure aloft will be right on top of the storm. With all this in its favor, the NHC bring Gustav to a Category 3 strength as it crosses the gulf. It must be noted though that both the GFDL and the HWRF, both excellent tropical models, take the storm to Category 4 and 5 from time to time as it approaches landfall early next week. Will all this being said, if the forecast does not shift…evacuations will begin along the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday so plan for this if you have to travel that way or have family and friends over there that are going to need a place to stay.

Raycom Media, our parent company, is based in Montgomery, Alabama and is already planning a massive response to back up our sister stations on the coast in Lake Charles, LA and Biloxi, Mississippi.

T.S. HANNA

(Hanna Satellite Photo - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

More folks along the Atlantic coast and across the Lowcountry are watching Hanna closely as we head into the weekend. The good news is that Hanna is taking her time getting organized and is expected to roam about east of the Bahamas at least through early next week. Upper level shear and some dry air had taken a bit of a toll on the system overnight but there is a lot of convection overall near the center and I do think that as the shear weakens, Hanna will grow and accoring to the latest models, could reach hurricane strength late this weekend and become a major storm by Monday or Tuesday. The steering currents are very weak hear Hanna right now so we expect a general northwest track to continue through Saturday. After that, and area of blocing high pressure will build in to the north. This should push Hanna back to the southwest, into the Eastern Bahamas by Monday. Then nobody knows what happens. There is a general consensus that the steering flow cuts off and Hanna lingers for a few days or drifts west toward the east coast of Florida. It may do this, it may turn north towards us or it may move back out to sea. We just don’t know yet…so we will all have to watch and wait to see what happens.

(Hanna Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

We will have the latest advisories posted on the blog after the 11am update.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Here is the 8am Intermediate Advisory:

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

…CENTER OF GUSTAV ABOUT TO MOVE WEST OF JAMAICA…

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA…FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…LA HABANA…AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST…NEAR THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA…OR ABOUT 100 MILES…160 KM…

WEST-NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 200 MILES…320 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TOMORROW.  ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA THIS MORNING…MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…18.3 N…78.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008

500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

…HANNA IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME…

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES…400 KM…NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR.   A

MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BUT HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION…21.7 N…62.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

…GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA HEADING TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA…FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…LA HABANA…AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES…140 KM…WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 220 MILES…355 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY…AND APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION…18.1 N…78.1 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Latest 11am advisories from the National Hurricane Center: