Tropical Storm Fay made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida this morning around 5:00am at Cape Romano, south of Naples with winds at 60 mph. This was the second landfall technically, since she made her first crossing onto land in the Florida Keys on Monday afternoon. Since making landfall the radar representation as well as the satellite views have continued to show a well formed center of circulation.

(Infrared Satellite Image - T.S. FAY - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The cloud shield from Fay is spreading north as far as Jacksonville this morning and the rain bands are as far north as Daytona Beach as of 8:45am at post time. Some recent observations have shown sustained winds as high as 35 mph near and east of the center with several gusts well into the high end of the tropical storm spectrum. Fay did not have enough time over water to reach hurricane strength but was close according to the Hurricane Hunters who did record SFMR winds over 70 mph before landfall. The storm will continue to dump copious amounts of rain on the Sunshine State today with the threat of tornadoes as well. There have already been dozens of warnings issued and this is typical with a well developed, landfalling tropical system.

THE FORECAST …. (FLIP A QUARTER!)

Fay has been giving us fits on her forecast not really in strength but her path. That uncertainty continues this morning between many of the forecast models but there is some good news. They are more in agreement on a short term track across central Florida to a point near Cape Canaveral or just offshore in roughly 12-18 hours.

(Tropcial Forecast Models - T.S. FAY - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The plots above look like spaghetti after I get out of the kitchen..but you can see the “general” agreement in a point near northeast Florida over the next day or so. From there things get a bit sketchy. A strong blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in over the New England states later in the week. This is what is expected to bend Fay back to the west. I feel that our exposure to tropical weather from Fay depends on how quickly she moves northeast and then how fast the ridge is to build in. If the ridge is delayed at all in development, Fay will have some extra time to sit over the coastal waters and regain a little strength. Several models bring Fay back inland near the Florida/Georgia state line then take it westward through southern GA and AL. Some take it back over the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf and move it toward the Mississippi Coast next week! You get the idea that its going to turn left but we just don’t know when and where.

(NHC Forecast - TS FAY - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The NHC/TPC forecast above shows a westward bend starting on Thursday morning. That looks reasonable but is all key on high pressure to our north. This track would keep any significant tropical weather to our south (fingers crossed). It is interesting to note though that the HPC rainfall forecast for the next 5 days has a total between 11-15 inches of rain here with a maxim of 25″ just offshore.

THE BOTTOM LINE….FOR NOW:

Watch for weather to slowly cloud up here late tonight and during the morning on Wednesday as the bands of rain from Fay move further north toward the region. If Fay does not turn as forecast, winds and squally weather will build late on Wednesday overnight into Thursday. Be prepared now for lots of rain ahead for the rest of the week. Flooding may be an issue if the HPC QPF guidance is correct.

More to come later as updates are available.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wow…what a crazy couple of days with computer models flip flopping back and forth and Fay not wanting any of it!

 New guidance shows a weakening tropical storm moving north towards Jacksonville FLA then taking a sharp turn left towards Brunswick and on to Atlanta! 

Looks like all the models build the ridge to the north and east of Fay rather strongly and this makes sense given the current and short term synoptic changes w/ the trough that will be pulling out as another moves east.

This storm is trying to get better organized, but does not have much time and the conditions are only marginal for strengthening with some dry air entraining on the west side and some shear. 

Bottom line is that we’re looking at on and off rain showers into Wed/Thu & Fri with some heavy rains possible and gusty winds.  We could see some isolated tornadoes as we remain to the north and east of the center.

 We’ll keep you posted for sure.  Busy here in the Storm Center.  All of us are watching every model run and seeing what the computers are thinking then looking at the actual model consistency.

We’ll have new information at 11 and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcast.

Bill

After a brief move across west-central Cuba overnight, Tropical Storm Fay is starting to make her move off the northern coast of the island into the Florida Straights. The latest hurricane hunter reports indicate that the winds are starting to come up slightly and as of the 8:00 AM EDT advisory were up to 60mph from 50mph at 5am this morning. Fay continues to look a bit lop-sided on the satellite pics this morning. All of the deep convection is displaced to the east and northeast of the center thanks to dry air and a bit of upper level shear to the west of the storm. Now that the center is moving back over open, warm water a brief period will open up for Fay to strengthen. With upper level conditions still favorable, it is likely that Fay will become a Category 1 Hurricane before making landfall on the Florida west coast sometime tomorrow.

(GOES INFRARED SATELLITE - IMAGE COURTESY: NOAA/NHC)

THE TRACK FORECAST:

With the western side weaker, I don’t anticipate any rapid intensification like we saw with Hurricane Charley back in 2004. However, if Fay can rebuild a solid internal core, the intensity would gradually begin to build as the eyewall became more established. Even if Fay remains a moderate to strong tropical storm, she is going to dump lots of heavy rain on South Florida over the next 36 hours. Hurricane watches along with Tropical Storm watches/warning are already posted there and I anticipate those will slowly be moved northward as the storm wobbles NNW.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots- Image Courtes: SFWMD)

The forecast track has come into somewhat better alignment this morning, tightly clustered on a landfall somewhere near or south of the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, very near where Charley made landfall in Port Charlotte, Fl back in 2004. If Fay can stay over the warm waters and off the coast, she may reach Landfall as a Cat 1 storm, but as she moves inland it won’t take long before she falls back to a Tropical Storm.

LOWCOUNTRY IMPACTS: 

The exact impacts here on our stretch of the coast is still unwritten…until we see exactly where Fay makes landfall and the forecast track inland. If you look at the NHC official track, it brings the center of T.S. Fay just west of the Lowcountry on Thursday. This would put us on the eastern side of the storm, and open up the possibility of isolated severe weather with tornadoes and heavy rain the biggest threat. I have seen a bit more of an eastward trend in the model runs this morning and that will have to be watched closely.

(NHC Official Forecast Track - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

More to come after the late morning model runs are in house….just get ready for rain and wind mid to late week.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Tropical Storm Fay did survive the passage over the Dominican Republic and since it’s time over water the past 12+ hours, it has shown some signs of regeneration but the process is looking slow. Fay may not have time to become a Hurricane before moving over Cuba later this evening and tonight.
(Visible Satellite - GOES FLOATER - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The center of Fay was located near the Gulf of Ana Maria as of the 11am advisory package and was moving slowly northwest toward the southern coast of Cuba. The circulation is showing signs on the visible pics of trying to become better organized but is now fighting some dry air off to the west of the storm. The disrupted core appears to have ingested some of that drier air and that has let to the heaviest rain displaced to the right of the COC (center of circulation). Fay still has the chance to intensify quickly to near hurricane strength before making landfall on Cuba as it is over very warm waters.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast model plots are all still split to the left and right this morning, however the more reliable models are shifted again slightly to the east of the previous runs and the target for initial landfall in the U.S. is the southernmost Florida Keys, near Key West and then on up the west coast of the peninsula between Ft. Myers and the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The intensity plots along with the official forecast from the NHC does make Fay a hurricane before landfall on the western Florida Gulf Coast, most likely as a Category 1 storm, but there is the chance of a much stronger hurricane as the Gulf waters are very warm. Fay has to re-develop a solid inner core in order to continue strengthening. There is some evidence of this in the latest data but until Fay moves away from Cuba, the hurricane hunters can’t get a good read on the internal structure.

The question for the lowcountry down the road is what does Fay bring us? There are some hints that we may have to deal with a possible third landfall on the South Carolina coast as fay re-emerges over the extreme western Atlantic, near Jacksonville and moves northeast toward the South/North Carolina coastline. Depending on the amount of weakening while over Florida, we could still see tropical storm or hurricane conditions later next week. The plots from the NHC keep the storm to our west inland over the Savannah river as a tropical storm, which would give us a a fairly significant severe weather threat Tuesday - Thursday. This is all based on model forecast trends. Until Fay moves inland and time progresses over the next few days we will not have a solid hold on the potential threats here.

(Official NHC Forecast - Image Courtesy: National Hurricane Center)

The NHC has Fay just west of Beaufort on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm. This bears close watching as a bend slightly to the east would mean that tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings would be necessary in the days ahead for the region. Hurricane Watches are already posted for the Florida Keys northward up the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of Florida.

Thats the latest in a quiclk glance here on Sunday morning. If things change I will post again later this evening. Otherwise Join Brad Miller and Chief Meteorologist Bill Walsh on the evening broadcasts tonight. I will have the latest for you on Monday morning starting at 5AM.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Good Saturday Morning…will do a quick update here and have more after the 12Z models are all in house.

All eyes are still on Fay this morning and she is holding her own over the high mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The satellite view shows a large convective mass south of the somewhat uncertain COC (center of circulation).

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NASA/MSFC)

As we typically see on systems as they pass over the islands, the internal structure is a bit disrupted with the heaviest storms displaced to the north or south over the warmer and smoother waters. The hurricane hunters have reported a hard time finding the exact center of the storm as they flew around the entire island. I would not be suprised to see the center migrate or try and reform just off the south coast of Haiti as it moves westward. The overall storm structure looks very well defined this morning with upper level outflow established on all sides. There is evidence of on and off spiraling bands on radar. The big questions remain…how does Fay interact with her continued passage over land then sea then land again, how much can she strengthen while over the water and how does the overall synoptic setup in the future impact her path?

Those are all questions lots of forecasters are working to answer. I will say this…it looks better for us that we will not be in a position for a “direct hit” as it appeared yesterday as all the dynamical tropical models have moved the path to the west, along with the NHC official forecast track. But as we alyways say, you cant focus on the “black line”. The entire “forecast cone” is what to look for and yes, we still fall in that cone. Here is the latest look at the model data as of 9:00am EDT:

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

As you can see the guidance package is tightly clustered on a track along the southwest coast of Cuba in to the Florida Straits and then paralleling the west coast of Florida with a landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida, near St. Marks. With that being said, look at the spread though…from south of Mobile Bay east to Wilmington, N.C. so you see why we cant hang out hat on any point just yet. The further west Fay moves over the Caribbean before her northward turn, the more the track will move to the west. If she turns north sooner, the track will bend bak a bit more to the east. The intensity forecast is just as tricky. If Fay can remain somewhat consolidated as it exits the coast of Haiti, it will have a good environment for fairly quick strengthening. There is just a question on how quickly she can take advantage of the warm waters before moving over the southeast coast of Cuba. The NHC forecast makes her a hurricane once she brushes back over the Gulf of Ana Maria (water just off the south central coast of Cuba). She is forecast to maintain hurricane strength across western Cuba and strengthen as she moves up the Florida coast. If Fay can tap the heat potential in the water and quickly get her act together, there is a reasonable possibility that she could reach Category 2 status as she approaches the Sunshine State. (Let us note though that a more westward track over the waters south of Cuba would allow explosive development as the oceanic heat content there is very impressive and could lead to rapid intensification).

It’s all still really a wait and see game. I don’t want folks here in the Lowcountry to dismiss the storm totally just yet. With a landfall to our south and west on the Gulf Coast, we still have a good chance of getting some heavy rain and strong storms as the center moves inland. So…stay with us here on the Blog..and on Live 5 News.com and we will have the latest updates through the weekend.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Okay….busy in the Storm Center today.

 Bottom line on FAY….we need to watch it.  Current track and NHC thinking is up the west coast of Florida. 

This all comes down to timing.  The trough moving off the east coast will help turn the storm north, then a ridge builds as it exits, perhaps forcing the storm more west at the end of the period.

The models are hinting a tad more left of track this evening, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out.  A couple bring it along the east coast of Florida and another towards New Orleans!  So, we just need to look at all the runs and see where the consensus is. 

If the storm would be more right of track in time, that could be a problem for us seeing that it would be over water and would intensify, perhaps into a category III or IV.  If it takes the current forecast track, the land mass interaction will keep it at bay, perhaps a tropical storm for its life.  The mountians of the Dominican Republic and Cuba will be key to keeping this from becoming a major hurricane.

Again, lots of uncertainties.  We have to watch this storm carefully and will do so here all weekend and into next week.

Hope you have a great weekend.  We’ll keep you posted on the storm.

Bill

I will say that I am very suprised that the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed surface circulation yesterday when they flew through 92L. Both the Air Force KC-130W and the NOAA high altitude jet was in the system yesterday at the same time, looking and searching. They found a well developed low pressure center that just had not made it to the surface yet. This morning, the satellite pictures show a developing system.

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NOAA/CIRA)

The morning satellite pictures show a good looking, fairly symmetrical system with upper level outflow established to the north, east and south. A burst of heavy storms this morning was evident right over San Juan both on satellite and Puerto Rico radar images. Radar does show lots of heavy rain and indications of spiraling bands developing to the northeast of the island. The center of the mid level circulation appears to be just off the northern coast of the island with the heaviest storms displaced to the south of the center. There is lots of data to look at now with this system, all with just about any outcome you want so lets look at what we see as the most viable solution…

THE FORECAST PATH:

All the tropical forecast models continue to push the idea of a general north of west track over the next 50 hours or so.

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

As the storm continues to the west-northwest it should start it’s poleward turn in response to a mid-level trough of low pressure that is expected to be over the central U.S. at the first of next week. There is some debate on wheteher the trough will be strong enough to pull it off the coast at this point. As you can see from the model plots, this is a troubling path for the Bahamas, the Florida east coast as well as Georgia and South Carolina. There are too many varying model solutions out there now to make a definitive call, but we must watch this closely. If the system stay somewhat disorganized today, it may move more westward over the island of Hispanola, which would weaken the system. If it moves more over the open waters offshore, look for a growing system. With that being said, lets look at the intensity forecast.

HOW STRONG?

The look of 92L on the satellite already shows a system getting better and better organized by the hour. the upper level shear is low, less than 10 knots and it should stay that way over the next five days or so. An upper level anticyclone (high pressure) is building over the region and that will help vent the upper levels of the storm, making the upper level conditions about perfect for intensification. In the lower levels, as soon as the low level circulation can close off the growth should really begin. The storm is still surrounded by some drier air, but it is deep enough now that it has moistened the atmosphere enough that it should not feel any effects from the Saharan Air Layer.

(Tropical Intensity Forecast - Image Courtesy: Colorado State University)

The tropical intensity models all take the system just about directly to a tropical storm and then show a gradual increase to a Category 1 storm. As the system approaches the Bahamas toward the end of the weekend the SHIPS and GFDL both make it a Category 2 storm. With the warm water and low shear, it could be even stronger than forecast. Remember…there is much less accuracy in the fields of intensity forecasting so stay on top of the forecast day by day for the latest.

WHERE DOES IT GO?

Thats a question that I wish someone could answer for me! 92L is currently in a location that bears close watching as it could affect folks from the central Gulf Coast, around Florida to the coast of the Carolinas. My best guess this morning is that once the system can “officially” develop it continues west-northwest very near the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Cuba through Saturday. If the storm tracks over the islands, the high mountains could weaken or tear the system apart. If the center stays over water, look for a gradual increase in strength. The oceanic heat content in the water around the Bahamas is very high and this could lead to rapid intensification. There is a moderate chance of a strong Category 2 hurricane in the central Bahamas by the end of the weekend. Beyond that, it all depends on the upper level steering currents as to whether it stalls off the Florida coast, moves toward the Gulf of Mexico or makes a bee line toward the Carolinas. It must be noted that the GFDL has a Category 4 hurricane off the southern South Carolina coastline next Wednesday…just to reinforce the idea we have to be ready.
(GFDL Forecast - Click For Full Size Image - Image Courtesy: Florida State Univesity) 

The general consensus is that it’s a good time to keep tuned to the forecast. There may be no threat to us but the setup bears close watching…which we will do. Make sure that if you have a generator, it is working and you have all the necessary supples you need to protect your home if that becomes the case. Stay with us here on the Blog all weekend long as more and more data becomes available.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

We are busy in the Storm Center watching a developing tropical system near the Virgin Islands.

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force Reserve have been out there…actually two missions….and have not found a closed circulation; so the hurricane center decided not to upgrade it at this time.

I think that this has the potential to grow into a tropical storm and perhaps hurricane depending on the track and relation to the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba.  If it’s over the water or just hugs the coasts down there, we might see some development into a hurricane with the warm water temps, light shear and good outflow thanks to a ridge to the north of the system.

After that, the models differ, but we’ll have to keep an eye on it because of its proximity to the Southeast US coast.

We’ll keep you posted here and on the broadcasts tonight. 

Had a great opportunity to take the kids on a little boat ride today and lunch over at Shem Creek.  Met some great folks from SCE&G who work hard in storms to keep our lights on and to get the power back when it’s knocked out.

Well, busy tracking the tropics so we’ll make this short today. Stay tuned as we keep an eye on things in the tropics.

We’ll look for you on tonight’s broadcasts.

Bill

Busy morning here in the weather office this morning and all the talk on the blogs and discussion boards are on the tropics so lets get right to it and look at the latest.

INVEST 92L:

(Enhanced Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

THIS MORNING:
There has been a lot of deep convection (thunderstorms) developing with 92L over the past 12-18 hours and the disturbance looks much better developed this morning than it has since it moved off the coast of Africa. 92L is not far from becoming a depression or even a tropical storm. There are good indications of a near surface circulation center and the deep convection has been migrating closer to what appears to be the broad center. Upper level outflow is visible in the cirrus bands of clouds to the north and east. The current wind shear overhead is very weak and the water warm so this should be the onset of a gradual strengthening cycle. 92L has already begun to spread showers over the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands. There will be an increase in showers and storms over Puerto Rico today ahead of the system.

THE TRACK FORECAST:


(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Colorado State University)

A look at the forecast shows more and more agreement in the overall potential track. The morning model guidance has a better grasp on 92L since it is better developed. They all show a continued WNW movement through about 72 hours. This brings the system very near the northern coast of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. It remains to be seen if the rugged, mountainous terrain of these islands will have any profound effect on the development of the system. After the 72 hour mark is when we have to watch with caution. All the tropical model suites turn the system more poleward in response to a trough over the east-central U.S.. Timing is key on this turn. If the rightward jog happens later than currently forecast, it will pose a more significant risk to the Florida east coast and eventually the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. If the turn is sooner, 92L will move more parallel to the East Coast (fingers crossed!) The chances of this becoming a Gulf of Mexico storm are looking less and less today but as we always say with tropical systems, they make their own weather and go where they want to go. Needless to say…everyone from the Florida Keys to the Carolinas will be watching this one over the weekend.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST:
As good as we have gotten at track forecasting, we still lack in the area of intensity forecasting. We have several good models that work on this but so far out in advance it’s almost a general “shot in the dark”. Here is the latest guidance from CSU:

(Tropical Intensity Forecast - Image Courtesy: Colorado State University)

As you can see, the plots are across the board from a strong tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane! All the “reliable” models that we lean on do bring 92L to hurricane status over the weekend and continue a upward trend at the end of the 120 forecast period. I feel somewhat ok with leaning toward the idea of a borderline Cat 1/2 by Monday…if the system continues to stay orginized today and does not become weakened by the terrain of the islands.
OUR BEST GUESS:
So all this leads us to our daily “best guess” on what will happen.  Seeing that 92L is looking good this morning and there is no reason for that to change, we will go with gradual strengthening into a depression or storm in the next 12-24 hours. A track just north of the islands looks prudent, based on the model guidance and we will go along with the current intensity guides as well, putting an Category 2 hurricane in the Bahamas over the weekend. Beyond that, I am not ready to make a call just yet. Do we need to be on “guarded watch” over the weekend? Absolutely. If the storm does recurve to the north, the odds are high that the Carolinas will suffer some effects…something that will continue to play out day by day and as always, we will be watching.

ELSEWHERE:
Invest 93L is very weak this morning and shows little signs of organization. The odds are low now that this disturbance will be a threat at all, even if it does develop. Forecast models also try and develop another wave off the African coast in 3-4 days from now.
Stay with is for more updates!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The good news is that we had no severe weather in the Lowcountry today!  Our forecast for heavy rains and some flash flooding was on the mark, but the severe weather and tornado threat we were looking at did not, thankfully, materialize.

 We’ll see improving weather as we head into Thursday as drier air works its way into the area.  The storm system that brought all the rain is moving away. 

The tropics are rather busy with two waves we’re watching.  One in particular, about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days.  Some of the models brings this system towards the Bahamas and South Florida in a few days, but we’ll just have to see how organized it may get.  The environment has been a little less than ideal lately, but that may change a bit as it moves west/northwest.  We’ll keep you posted here and on our Hurricane Center website.

Busy day today after a fantastic lunch at the Palmetto Cafe’ at Charleston Place Hotel with Micky and the folks that run that great facility.  I have been asked and will be glad to help promote and host a wonderful benefit gala to be held at Charleston Air Force Base on October 5th which will help build a new recreation facility for our men and women in uniform.

This will be a big event and we look forward to being there and raising money for a great cause.  Micky tells me that they will have chefs from all across the Lowcountry, great food and deserts.  More on this to come and I’ll be talking about it often with ticket information and such.  Will keep you posted.

By the way, Leon Scott and the gang at Charleston Place put on a great lunch.  Thanks to all who work there everyday and represent some of the best hospitality that Charleston can offer.  (Try the shrimp or chicken salad and she crab soup!! The bread is awesome too!) 

We were busy here with our make-up consultant as we get ready for a big switch to High Definition television in September.  If you have a High Def television, you’ll see a huge difference.  If you don’t, you’ll also see a better picture quality in standard television.  High Def is different from Digital and the digital switch coming in February.  That’s the signal where High Def is the quality of the picture.  If you have cable or satellite, no worries, but if you use an antenna, you’ll have to get a converter box and their free from the government with a coupon.  Go to “The Big Switch” on our website for more.

Okay…time to get the weather together.  I hope you can join us for tonight’s broadcast as we look ahead to the weekend weather during the evening shows and again for an update before you go to bed at 11.

Have a great night….

Bill