August 15th, 2019: Severe Wx Pattern Remains for Day Two

The Low Country is poised to have a second round of stronger than usual thunderstorms. Temperatures fall to much cooler levels (no more of that 115 degree heat index craziness) for the first time since a week ago.

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The day will start out muggy and warm with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Coolest locations will be in the Barnwell-Orangeburg corridor, while the mildest locations will be the immediate coast and sea islands. Cloud cover will start out mostly clear around sunrise, with debris clouds along the coast. Mid-morning, mid level and upper level clouds will likely fill in the inland zones from the SW-NE. Being situated just SE of the cold front, most of the Low Country will have high PWAT values, appreciable cloud coverage, and much cooler temperatures than the past week. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s across the central Low Country, upper 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s well inland. High temperatures directly depend on precipitation and cloud cover. Areas will less clouds, will see warmer temperatures.

The severe weather threat will be slightly lower than Wednesday, but still notable. The cold front will cross into the region during the morning before stalling over us. CAPE will be in the moderate range of 2,000-2,500 J/kg at its peak, so thunderstorms will have plenty of energy to work with. The SPC has placed the majority of the Low Country under a marginal risk (As of Wednesday night), but the furthest inland areas will have a lower threat. This is because they will be on the backside of the then stationary front. The largest threat will be strong wind gusts and small hail, but flooding is a worrying threat. Storms will be slow moving, backbuilding, and torrential rain producers. Thunderstorms will initiate across the inland Low Country, and slowly shift to the coast.

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