Two Tropical Waves gliding across the Atlantic Basin, Return of rain to the area, and an upcoming break from the heat
On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring two tropical waves with a chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The closest wave dubbed 95L (as of 5pm July 31 95L has been deactivated), has a 10% chance of developing off the coast of South Carolina before sliding offshore. There will likely be no wind threat but the wave will shift the flow to the south/southeast for a couple days (mainly this weekend). This will bring an influx of tropical air and high precipitable water amounts into the atmosphere. This should allow for a better chance of rain and an increase in humidity. However the cloud cover will remain high, so most areas will avoid entering the 90s.
The more robust tropical wave has been given a 60% chance to form over the next five days, and is forecast to slowly move west to northwest for the next week or so. The image featured on the head of this blog post is this wave located in the central tropical Atlantic. This wave should slowly develop over the remainder of the week before entering a region of moister air and lower wind shear to the northeast of the Caribbean. Here there is a fair chance that tropical storm Chantal will develop. If Chantal quickly strengthens and takes a further north trajectory, it has a greater chance of being steered away from the lesser antilles and out to sea. On the other hand, a slightly weaker and southern storm would track across the far northeast edge of the Caribbean while strengthening. In this solution future-Chantal would move west-northwest just north of the greater Antilles before rounding the edge of the Bermuda High. Currently, this wave does not appear to serve a direct threat to the Low Country, but a stronger Bermuda Ridge would push the storm further west towards the southeast. Intensity wise it is likely the storm will remain named while traversing the subtropical western Atlantic, but could weaken due to strong wind shear. There is also a slight chance that an upper level anticyclone links with the storm to create an environment of favorable conditions (like a giant shield). In this scenario the storm has a window to strengthen into a hurricane or major hurricane.
Thursday the Low Country will be positioned under an atypical trough of low pressure that should remain in place for the next week (this may actually protect us from future-Chantal). Low temperatures should be right about average for the start of August (mid 70s), and high temperatures will be slightly above average in the mid to upper 90s. The clouds will remain in place for most of the day with most cover occuring in the afternoon and early morning, and the least cover occurring overnight and midday. Precipitation is unlikely over most zones, but inland counties (Bamberg, Barnwell, Orangeburg, Clarendon, and Allendale) may have a passing convective shower.
A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the SC coastline due expected high tides from 7.4-7.6 feet. Moderate flooding in coastal communities is possible.
*Please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center for official data*